Madhya Pradesh (MP) Elections, 2018 : Result Prediction [Updated]

Election results predictions are always a difficult thing to get right. However, we all can at least know what to expect from a result; the mood of analytics (as I would like to speak)

Let's look at numbers from opinion polls

Polling agency
4 April 2018IBC2410111910
14 August 2018ABP News- C Voter1061177
9 October 2018Times Now - Warroom Strategies1427711
9 October 2018Times Now - Chrome DM10810319
10 October 2018News Nation11110910
17 October 2018ABP News- C Voter108122
25 October 2018IndiaTV - CNX1288517
02 November 2018ABP News- C Voter Survey1061186
08 November 2018Graphnile6016010
09 November 2018Cvoter1071167
09 November 2018ABP News- CSDS1161059
09 November 2018Timesnow - CNX1229018
Average as on 9 November 201811310710
Image : Wikipedia [,_2018]

If you are unable to fathom so as to what is going on, probably you are a chart/diagram person. So, let's look at it graphically:

Here, it's clearly showing that there is hardly anything to choose between either of the parties. 'BJP Gain' means how many more seats BJP is going to get as per the current opinion poll compared to the last poll. Negative gain or loss hasn't been represented. Similarly for Congress you have INC gain.

Although, you might feel that BJP has seen a sharp surge in the run up to elections, that could be just an illusion of how the data is represented by agencies and me.

Let's look at more graphics

And one more:

Source :

This clearly paints the picture clear that BJP is not getting a simple majority if we believe the numbers which we have. That being said, it's not Congress's gain either.

Apart from these, I have my own way of getting to predictive aspect of anything using my 'Optimistic-Pessimistic-Most Likely Estimate'. More on the technical details and intuitions behind the estimate later. As of now, let's just chew in what my estimator has to say:

Most Likely10794

So, Congress(INC) is going to fall short by around 5-10 seats. Well, even BJP can from the government if they manage some sort of post poll alliance. Certainly, no one can predict with an omniscient accuracy. Everything will be clear in less than a week's time. Till then we can only predict.

Places you might want to go to know more about Madhya Pradesh (MP) Elections, 2018 : Result Prediction
1. High polling means vote for BJP? []
2. Google Trends []
3. Can Congress Defeat BJP In MP Election, Know What Ganesha Says []
4. Satta market speculates a likely win for Congress in Madhya Pradesh polls []
5. Quora Answers []

Of course, do check these links to come up with your own predictions.

Update for Exit Polls
Let's look at the pulse of polls, after exit polls.

Polling agency
Today's Chanakya1031252
C Voter – Republic TV1061186
Axis My India – India Today1111136
News Nation1181066
Jan Ki Baat– Republic TV1181057
VDPA Associates135887
CSDS – ABP News9412610
India News- NETA10611212
CNX– Times Now1268915
Poll of Polls1131098
Image : Wikipedia [,_2018]

This shows nothing substantive apart from the fact that BJP & Congress(INC) are squeezing the seats out of other parties.

This is what my comprehensive 'Optimistic-Pessimistic-Most Likely Estimate' predicts:

Most Likely10999

Ohho! Numbers can't get more close than this. Just in case, you want to know I'm trying to predict the outcome for BJP/INC hence, ignored the upside for regional parties. That being said, you can hardly say who will form the government? Let the machinations begin!